March 29, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The largest opposition party in Hungary has become the clear favourite in the country, according to a poll by Szonda Ipsos. 67 per cent of decided voters would back the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next general election, up five points since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The largest opposition party in Hungary has become the clear favourite in the country, according to a poll by Szonda Ipsos. 67 per cent of decided voters would back the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next general election, up five points since February.

The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is second with 24 per cent—down four points in a month—followed by the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) with three per cent, and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with two per cent.

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the SZDSZ secured 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers. In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government. Since mid-2007, Fidesz leader Orban has repeatedly called for an early legislative election.

On Jan. 23, Hungarian president Laszlo Solyom—who is backed by Fidesz—called for a national referendum on Mar. 9 in order to revise economic reforms passed by Gyurcsany’s government. The prime minister’s proposal entailed slashing the country’s fiscal deficit by charging extra fees for doctor and hospital visits as well as for university tuition fees. Fidesz fiercely opposed these proposals.

On Mar. 9, more than 80 per cent of voters rejected Gyurcsany’s proposed reforms in the nationwide plebiscite. On Mar. 21, Ildiko Lendvai, head of the MSZP’s parliamentary group, denied rumours that Gyurcsany might resign after the referendum setback, saying, "I don’t believe and don’t feel that there are preparations or an intention in the party to replace the prime minister."

Polling Data

If an election were held today, what party would you support? (Decided Voters)

	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008	Jan. 2008
Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz)	67%	62%	61%
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)	24%	28%	27%
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)	3%	3%	5%
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)	2%	3%	3%

Source: Szonda Ipsos
Methodology: Interviews with 1,500 Hungarian adults, conducted from Mar. 13 to Mar. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.