March 27, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New Zealand’s conservatives have managed to maintain a wide lead over the governing Labour party this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition National party in the next election to the House of Representatives, up 1.5 points since early March.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - New Zealand’s conservatives have managed to maintain a wide lead over the governing Labour party this month, according to a poll by Roy Morgan International. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition National party in the next election to the House of Representatives, up 1.5 points since early March.

Labour is second with 34 per cent, followed by the Greens with 6.5 per cent, and New Zealand First with three per cent. Support is lower for the Maori Party, ACT, United Future, and the Progressives.

Labour leader Helen Clark has acted as New Zealand’s prime minister since December 1999. In November 2006, Don Brash—who had served as National’s leader since October 2003—announced his resignation and was substituted by finance spokesman John Key.

In the September 2005 ballot, Labour elected 50 lawmakers to the 121-seat House of Representatives, and assembled a coalition government with the Progressives. United Future and New Zealand First agreed to support the administration in confidence and supply votes for three years. National finished second, with 48 legislators.

New Zealand currently has 120 soldiers serving in Afghanistan as part of a provincial reconstruction team. Although New Zealand is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—which is leading the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan—the government has called for a shift in NATO’s take on the war on terrorism.

On Mar. 25, Clark confirmed she will attend a summit about the war in Afghanistan with another 25 world leaders in Bucharest, Romania. The prime minister said that New Zealand wants "to ensure that the NATO strategy is a multi-pronged one, because a military strategy on its own doesn’t make the difference for Afghanistan. That has to be supplemented by a development strategy", and added: "You need a strong element of reconciliation as well, which can bring more people into the political process."

The next election in New Zealand is expected to take place in September 2008.

Polling Data

If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?

	Mar. 16	Mar. 2	Feb. 3
National	51%	49.5%	45.5%
Labour	34%	35%	36.5%
Greens	6.5%	7%	9%
New Zealand First	3%	4%	4%
Maori Party	2%	2%	1.5%
ACT	2%	1%	2%
United Future	1%	0.5%	0.5%
Progressives	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%

Source: Roy Morgan International
Methodology: Interviews with 822 New Zealand voters, conducted from Mar. 3 to Mar. 16, 2008. No margin of error was provided.