March 26, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains popular, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 47 per cent of respondents would back the ALP in the next legislative election, down four points since early March.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains popular, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 47 per cent of respondents would back the ALP in the next legislative election, down four points since early March.

The Coalition of Liberals and Nationals is second with 35 per cent—up four points in two weeks—followed by the Australian Greens with 11 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an 18-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Brendan Nelson—a former defence minister—defeated former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull in an internal leadership ballot by just three votes.

Earlier this month, Nelson discussed his party’s challenges, saying, "[Rudd] looked like a bureaucrat, he sounded like a bureaucrat and I say to the government, you better watch out. Because on our side it is not only about facts and figures, it is not only or so much about a strong economy helping the weak and the vulnerable—our balance sheet must always have on it human beings. (...) I lead a party and I lead an alternative government which respects what Australians think and what they say; we listen to it and we have learned."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Mar. 16	Mar. 2	Feb. 17
Australian Labor Party	47%	51%	46%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	35%	31%	36%
Australian Greens	11%	10%	10%
Others	7%	8%	8%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Mar. 16	Mar. 2	Feb. 17
Australian Labor Party	59%	63%	57%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	41%	37%	42%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,144 Australian voters, conducted from Mar. 14 to Mar. 16, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.