March 15, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou has lost public backing in Taiwan but remains the favourite to win the presidential election, according to a poll by United Daily News. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for Ma and running mate Vincent Siew in this month’s ballot, down four points since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou has lost public backing in Taiwan but remains the favourite to win the presidential election, according to a poll by United Daily News. 52 per cent of respondents would vote for Ma and running mate Vincent Siew in this month’s ballot, down four points since February.

Frank Hsieh and running mate Su Tseng-chang of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are second with 22 per cent, up four points in a month. One-in-four respondents remain undecided.

In 1895, following a military defeat, China ceded Taiwan to Japan. At the end of World War II, the island was returned to Chinese control. In 1949, as Mao Zedong’s communists were gaining prominence in Mainland China, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek established the Republic of China in Taiwan. A series of democratic reforms implemented by Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in the early 1990s allowed Taiwan’s residents to take part in free and fair elections. To this date, the People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan a "renegade province" and reserves the right to bring it under control.

DPP member Chen Shui-bian was first elected president in 2000. In March 2004, he earned a second term in an election marred by controversy after an apparent assassination attempt.

In January, the KMT and its partners won 85 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan. The KMT advocates for maintaining the status quo with the Chinese central government, while the DPP has aggressively pursued independence from Beijing.

Earlier this month, Ma apologized for the actions of KMT lawmakers that resulted in the resignation of Taiwanese finance minister Ho Chih-chin. KMT lawmakers urged Ho to go personally to the DPP’s campaign headquarters to investigate allegations that the party was getting free rent from First Commercial Bank, which is partly owned by the DPP. As Ho visited the building on Mar. 12, DPP and KMT supporters clashed outside.

On Mar. 13, Ho—who was appointed by Chen in June 2007 but does not belong to any political party—tendered his resignation, saying, "Some lawmakers insisted I go to investigate. (...) As a result the situation caused social unrest for which I am regretful and so this morning I resign.’’

For his part, the DPP’s Hsieh expressed concern over the episode, saying, "Just because the KMT has the majority in the legislature does not mean they can act with such arrogance, incivility and disregard for the law. (...) We are deeply worried about the KMT’s one-party domination."

Ma apologized for the incident, saying that the investigation "could have been done differently."

Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for Mar. 22.

Polling Data

Which of these tickets would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008	Dec. 2007
Ma Ying-jeou / Vincent Siew (KMT)	52%	56%	52%
Frank Hsieh / Su Tseng-chang (DPP)	22%	18%	23%
Undecided	26%	26%	25%

Source: United Daily News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,023 Taiwanese adults, conducted on Mar. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.