March 14, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The vast majority of people in Venezuela would be against going to war with neighbouring Colombia, according to a poll by Varianzas y Opinión. 89 per cent of respondents would oppose a military initiative against Colombia for political reasons.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The vast majority of people in Venezuela would be against going to war with neighbouring Colombia, according to a poll by Varianzas y Opinión. 89 per cent of respondents would oppose a military initiative against Colombia for political reasons.

The leftist armed group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) has fought against the establishment for over four decades. The largest Latin American guerrilla group finances its operations through kidnappings, and by trading drugs and precious metals. More than 700 people—and by some accounts more than 3,000—are currently being held in captivity by the FARC. Almost 50 of them are politicians, police and army officers that the FARC intends to use for the purposes of negotiating the release of its incarcerated members.

On Mar. 1, the Colombian armed forces attacked a FARC camp almost two kilometres into the border with Ecuador. The target was Reyes, also known as the "chancellor of the FARC" due to his role as the group’s spokesperson before the international community. Reyes—one of seven top FARC commanders—was killed along with 16 other rebels in the raid. One Colombian soldier was also killed.

The operation was followed by fierce condemnation by Ecuador and Venezuela, which also borders Colombia. Both Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa and Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, who are political allies, recalled their ambassadors and officially broke diplomatic ties with Colombia. Chávez immediately ordered Venezuelan troops to seal the border with Colombia, and warned of retaliation if its boundary "was also violated."

Chávez has helped free a number of politicians held by the FARC through lengthy negotiations. The rebel group openly expresses its admiration for the left-leaning Venezuelan leader. Last month, Chávez called for Colombia, the United States and the European Union (EU) to take the FARC out of the list of terrorist organizations and consider it a "legitimate insurgent force." The suggestion was not implemented. 69 per cent of respondents in Venezuela deem the FARC a terrorist organization.

On Mar. 7, diplomatic ties between Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador were restored. On Mar. 9, the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said it will place a new ambassador in Colombia to replace Pável Rondón, stating its decision to "re-establish the normal functioning of its diplomatic relations" with Colombia was "a victory for peace and sovereignty."

Polling Data

Would you support a war against Colombia for political reasons?

Yes	2%
No	89%
Not sure	9%

Do you think the Colombia guerrilla is a terrorist organization?

Yes	69%
No	20%
Not sure	11%

Source: Varianzas y Opinión
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Venezuelan adults, conducted from Feb. 27 to Mar. 2, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.