March 13, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou and his running mate Vincent Siew continue to lead the race to Taiwan’s presidency, according to a poll by TVBS. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the Ma-Siew ticket in this month’s ballot, down four points since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou and his running mate Vincent Siew continue to lead the race to Taiwan’s presidency, according to a poll by TVBS. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the Ma-Siew ticket in this month’s ballot, down four points since February.

Frank Hsieh and running mate Su Tseng-chang of the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are second with 31 per cent, up 11 points in a month.

In 1895, following a military defeat, China ceded Taiwan to Japan. At the end of World War II, the island was returned to Chinese control. In 1949, as Mao Zedong’s communists were gaining prominence in Mainland China, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek established the Republic of China in Taiwan. A series of democratic reforms implemented by Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in the early 1990s allowed Taiwan’s residents to take part in free and fair elections. To this date, the People’s Republic of China considers Taiwan a "renegade province" and reserves the right to bring it under control.

DPP member Chen Shui-bian was first elected president in 2000. In March 2004, he earned a second term in an election marred by controversy after an apparent assassination attempt.

In January, the KMT and its partners won 85 seats in the 113-member Legislative Yuan. The KMT advocates for maintaining the status quo with the Chinese central government, while the DPP has aggressively pursued independence from Beijing.

On Mar. 9, Ma and Hsieh faced off in the final televised debate of the campaign. Hsieh described Ma’s common market proposal as a "sugar-coated poison that would result in Taiwan being annexed by its rival China in the end," adding, "(It) is detrimental to our small and medium scale firms, our farmers and workers, but he insists it will improve our economy. Has he ever told our voters its serious damage to Taiwan?" Hsieh claimed that, under Ma’s economic policy, unemployed Chinese people would seize all jobs in Taiwan and even local prostitutes would be outnumbered.

Ma said Hsieh "exaggerated" the negative impact of the common market, arguing that the European Union (EU) has never seen a country annexed by another. The KMT contender said his plan would restrict both workers and farm products from China.

Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for Mar. 22.

Polling Data

Which of these tickets would you support in the next presidential election?

	Mar. 2008	Feb. 2008
Ma Ying-jeou / Vincent Siew (KMT)	50%	54%
Frank Hsieh / Su Tseng-chang (DPP)	31%	20%
Undecided	19%	26%

Source: TVBS
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 917 Taiwanese adults, conducted on Mar. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.