February 15, 2008

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Serge Sarkisian heads to this month’s presidential election in Armenia as the favourite, according to a poll by Populus released by Armenia TV. 50.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the current prime minister in the ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Serge Sarkisian heads to this month’s presidential election in Armenia as the favourite, according to a poll by Populus released by Armenia TV. 50.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the current prime minister in the ballot.

National Assembly chairman Artur Baghdasaryan of the Rule of Law (OY) party is second with 13.4 per cent, followed by former president Levon Ter Petrossian with 12.6 per cent, Vahan Hovhannisyan of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation with 7.6 per cent, Artashes Geghamyan of National Unity (AM) with 6.4 per cent, Tigran Karapetian of the People’s Party (ZhK) with 4.5 per cent, and former prime minister Vazgen Manukyan with 3.2 per cent.

Armenian president Robert Kocharyan was re-elected to a new four-year term in March 2003 in an election marred by fraud allegations. The next presidential election is scheduled for Feb. 19.

In April 2007, Sarkisian became Armenia’s new prime minister following the death of Andranik Markarian. The Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) was headed by Markarian until his death, and is now primarily led by Sarkisian. In May, Armenian voters renewed the 131-member National Assembly. Final results gave the HHK 32.82 per cent of the vote and 64 seats, making it the strongest party in the legislature. On that same month, Sarkisian said he would seek the presidency.

On Feb. 12, Heritage Party member Vardan Khachatrian announced the endorsement of Ter Petrossian, saying, "We couldn’t simply hold a passive stance at the election. Our decision is well-grounded. Levon Ter Petrossian is the only candidate enjoying public feedback. The recent large-scale rallies testify to this belief and had a direct influence on our decision. We haven’t agreed on some major points, for example the Karabakh conflict resolution. Besides, we have ideological differences."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

Serge Sarkisian	50.7%
Artur Baghdasaryan	13.4%
Levon Ter Petrosyan	12.6%
Vahan Hovhannisyan	7.6%
Artashes Geghamyan	6.4%
Tigran Karapetian	4.5%
Vazgen Manukyan	3.2%

Source: Populus / Armenia TV
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,500 Armenian adults, conducted from Jan. 21 to Jan. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.