Polls & Research

Mexicans Doubt Transparency in Elections

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Few Mexicans express confidence in their electoral processes, according to a poll by Consulta Mitofsky. Only 20.9 per cent of respondents think the next election in the Latin American country would be clean, while almost 70 per cent expect it to be not very clean, not clean at all, or fraudulent.

Additionally, 31.9 per cent of respondents say they are not likely to go out and vote in the next election, and 8.1 per cent say they would certainly not cast a ballot.

Mexican voters chose their new president in July 2006. Official results placed Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) as the winner with 36.68 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) with 36.11 per cent, and Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 22.71 per cent. Calderón—a former energy secretary—took over as Mexico’s head of state in December.

López Obrador filed an unsuccessful legal challenge to the election result, alleging widespread fraud. European Union (EU) election monitors did not report any irregularities in the vote count. The PRD candidate publicly refers to himself as "Mexico’s legitimate president."

Allegations of fraud surfaced during and after the 1988 Mexican presidential election, when the government blamed the breakdown of a computer system for unexpected delays in the distribution of results. In the end, Carlos Salinas de Gortari—the nominee for the ruling PRI—was declared the winner with 50.7 per cent of the vote, defeating Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the National Democratic Front (FDN).

The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) was established in 1990 as an autonomous entity responsible for organizing federal elections in Mexico. Previously, the interior secretariat had been in charge of all election-related activities. A series of electoral reforms—including a proposal to restructure the IFE—were approved by the Mexican Congress in September 2007.

On Feb. 5, Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC) lawmaker Marina Arvizu accused the main parties of harming the process of restructuring the IFE by appointing political allies to the new available posts. Arvizu blamed leaders of the PRD, PAN and PRI for "putting their own interests before the principle of building a citizen-powered, independent and autonomous IFE," adding, "In the end, this will be a 360 degree shift. And then we’ll be back at the beginning."

Polling Data

If an election took place this Sunday, how clean do you think it would be?

Very clean	20.9%
Not very clean	44.1%
Not clean at all	16.7%
Fraudulent	8.6%
Not sure	9.7%

If an election took place this Sunday, how likely are you go out and to vote?

Very likely	55.3%
Not too likely	31.9%
Not likely at all	8.1%

Source: Consulta Mitofsky
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Mexican adults, conducted from Dec. 7 to Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.