December 24, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds the upper hand against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the early stages of the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator next year, while 42 per cent would back the New York senator.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Republican John McCain holds the upper hand against Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the early stages of the 2008 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the Arizona senator next year, while 42 per cent would back the New York senator.

Support for McCain in this match-up increased by two points since November, while backing for Rodham Clinton fell by four points. In a separate contest, McCain holds a four-point lead over Illinois senator Barack Obama.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee trails both Rodham Clinton and Obama by nine points.

On Dec. 19, McCain outlined his fiscal policies, saying, "I worry about obviously any reduction in revenues but to have basically two tax codes in America is not an acceptable situation. (...) You paid $14 billion last year to pay someone to do your taxes and you had no idea—American families had no idea whether it was valid or legitimate in anyway." McCain also called for changes in Social Security, adding, "Now are we going to fix it the way Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neil did back in 1983 or are we going to hand it off to an unluckier generation of Americans?"

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were (...)?

McCain v. Rodham Clinton

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Oct. 2007
John McCain (R)	47%	45%	44%
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	42%	46%	47%

McCain v. Obama

	Dec. 2007	Sept. 2007	Jul. 2007
John McCain (R)	44%	38%	40%
Barack Obama (D)	40%	40%	47%

Huckabee v. Rodham Clinton

	Dec. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	47%
Mike Huckabee (R)	38%

Huckabee v. Obama

	Dec. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	44%
Mike Huckabee (R)	35%

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Dec. 18 and Dec. 19, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.