December 21, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is the most popular presidential contender in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. At least 51 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in head-to-head contests against three prospective Republican rivals.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Barack Obama is the most popular presidential contender in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. At least 51 per cent of respondents would back the Illinois senator in head-to-head contests against three prospective Republican rivals.

Obama holds a six-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, an 18-point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and a 21-point lead over former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

In other match-ups, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is almost tied with Giuliani, but holds the upper hand against Romney and Huckabee.

Yesterday in New Hampshire, Obama touted his outsider credentials, saying, "Most people come to Washington to serve. They get into politics for all the right reasons. What does happen, though, is people do get sucked into the conventional wisdom. (...) Instead of doing business behind closed doors, we’re going to bring democracy back to the people. We’re at a moment in our history where there’s not much to like about what’s going on in Washington."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Giuliani v. Obama

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Jul. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	51%	45%	45%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	45%	45%	49%

Romney v. Obama

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Jun. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	57%	52%	56%
Mitt Romney (R)	39%	34%	35%

Huckabee v. Obama

	Dec. 2007
Barack Obama (D)	53%
Mike Huckabee (R)	42%

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton

	Dec. 16	Nov. 14	Nov. 4
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	49%	49%	51%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	48%	44%	45%

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

	Dec. 2007	Nov. 2007	Jun. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	52%	54%	53%
Mitt Romney (R)	46%	38%	40%

Huckabee v. Rodham Clinton

	Dec. 2007
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	53%
Mike Huckabee (R)	44%

Source: Gallup / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 906 American registered voters, conducted from Dec. 14 to Dec. 16, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.