December 18, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak is heavily favoured in tomorrow’s presidential election in South Korea, according to a review of five different voting intention polls. An average of 43.3 per cent of respondents would support the Grand National Party (GNP) presidential candidate in the ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak is heavily favoured in tomorrow’s presidential election in South Korea, according to a review of five different voting intention polls. An average of 43.3 per cent of respondents would support the Grand National Party (GNP) presidential candidate in the ballot.

Former Uri Party chairman and United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate Chung Dong-young is second with 15.9 per cent, followed by Lee Hoi-chang—a two-time losing presidential contender from the GNP who launched his candidacy as an independent—with 12.2 per cent, Moon Kook-hyun of the Creative Korea Party (CKP) with 6.6 per cent, Kwon Young-ghil of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) with 3.1 per cent, and Rhee In-je of the Democratic Party (DP) with 0.9 per cent.

In the five surveys—conducted by Media Research for The Korea Times and Hankook Ilbo, Gallup Korea for Chosun Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, Korea Research Center for Dong-A Ilbo, and Research Plus for The Hankyoreh—more than two-in-five respondents voice support for Lee Myung-bak. No other contender was able to clear the 20 per cent threshold.

Roh Moo-hyun won the December 2002 presidential election with 49 per cent of all cast ballots as a candidate for the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP). In February 2004, Roh severed ties with the MDP and publicly voiced his support for the Uri Party. Lawmakers from the MDP and the GNP successfully voted to initiate impeachment procedures against Roh. Former prime minister Goh Kun briefly took over as interim president before the country’s Constitutional Court ruled in favour of Roh.

In August, Lee won the GNP’s internal primary with 49.6 per cent of the vote, defeating former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-hye. Lee has called for South Korea to take a harder line on North Korea and to promote free-market policies.

Yesterday, South Korea’s National Assembly authorized a new probe into financial fraud allegations surrounding Lee Myung-bak—including embezzlement, false documents and share-rigging—over the release of video footage where Lee discusses his role at an investment firm called BBK.

Chung expressed dismay, saying, "GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak is nothing more than a criminal. He must immediately stand down. (...) We can defeat him if we form an alliance against corrupt forces. I will keep the door open to any groups and candidates to discuss the issue."

The next presidential election will take place tomorrow. The winner of the election will assume office on Feb. 25, 2008.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you support in the presidential election?

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	Avg.
Lee Myung-bak (GNP)	41.7%	45.4%	44.7%	40.2%	44.3%	43.3%
Chung Dong-young (UNDP)	16.6%	17.5%	15.7%	15.1%	14.4%	15.9%
Lee Hoi-chang (Ind.)	10.9%	13.6%	13.1%	12.4%	10.9%	12.2%
Moon Kook-hyun (CKP)	7.0%	6.7%	5.9%	7.1%	6.4%	6.6%
Kwon Young-ghil (DLP)	3.3%	3.9%	3.1%	2.5%	2.9%	3.1%
Rhee In-je (DP)	1.1%	0.9%	1.0%	0.7%	0.6%	0.9%

(1) Source: Media Research / The Korea Times / Hankook Ilbo
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 South Korean adults, conducted on Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

(2) Source: Gallup Korea / Chosun Ilbo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,035 South Korean adults, conducted on Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

(3) Source: JoongAng Ilbo
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,500 South Korean adults, conducted on Dec. 11 and Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 1.4 per cent.

(4) Source: Korea Research Center / Dong-A Ilbo
Methodology: Interviews with 1,500 South Korean adults, conducted on Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

(5) Source: Research Plus / The Hankyoreh
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 South Korean adults, conducted on Dec. 12, 2007. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.