Polls & Research

Greek Cyprus Presidential Race Wide Open

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - An upcoming presidential election in Greek Cyprus could end in a photo-finish, according to a poll by Noverna. 30.1 per cent of respondents would vote for incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos in next year’s ballot.

Dimitris Christofias is a close second with 28.4 per cent, followed by Ioannis Kasoulides with 27.1 per cent. Costas Themistocleous is a distant fourth, with 1.2 per cent.

The presidential election in Greek Cyprus is scheduled for Feb. 17, 2008. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place a week later.

In prospective second round scenarios, Papadopoulos and Christofias are virtually tied, Kasoulides trails Christofias by 6.1 points, and Papadopoulos leads Kasoulides by 11.4 points.

Papadopoulos won the 2003 election with 51.5 per cent of the vote. He has been endorsed by the Democratic Party (DIKO), the Movement of Social Democrats (EDEK) and the European Party (EvroKo). Christofias is the president of the House of Representatives and secretary general of the left-wing Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL). Kasoulides, a former foreign minister, is backed by the opposition Democratic Rally (DISY).

In 2006, Greek Cypriot voters renewed the House of Representatives. Final results gave AKEL and DIKO 29 seats in the legislative branch, enough to guarantee that Christofias would preside the chamber.

Relations between the Greek majority and the Turkish minority in Cyprus have been frayed since 1974, when a Greek-sponsored attempt to seize the government was met by military intervention from Turkey. In the skirmish, the Turks gained control of almost two-fifths of the island, which in 1983 declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Turkish government has never acknowledged the Greek Cypriot administration. More than 30,000 Turkish soldiers occupy the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

On Nov. 14, Christofias referred to his political platform as "progressive" and assured voters he would not try to implement a communist regime, saying, "Our candidacy has the support of people from all social strata. If elected, our government will be made up of progressive personalities."

Polling Data

Which candidate would you support in the presidential election?

Tassos Papadopoulos	30.1%
Dimitris Christofias	28.4%
Ioannis Kasoulides	27.1%
Costas Themistocleous	1.2%
Undecided	13.2%

Run-off scenarios

Dimitris Christofias 36.9% - 37.1% Tassos Papadopoulos
Ioannis Kasoulides 32.8% - 44.2% Tassos Papadopoulos
Dimitris Christofias 37.7% - 31.6% Ioannis Kasoulides

Source: Noverna
Methodology: Interviews to 600 Greek Cyprus adults, conducted from Nov. 16 to Nov. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.