Polls & Research

Outcome of Venezuela’s Referendum Uncertain

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - An upcoming referendum on constitutional reforms promoted by Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez might not get enough votes to pass, according to two separate public opinion polls. In a survey by Hinterlaces published in El Nacional, 51 per cent of decided voters would support the changes to the country’s charter, while 49 per cent would reject them.

In a study by Mercanálisis, 64 per cent of decided voters say they will cast a ballot against the proposed reforms.

Chávez—a left-leaning leader—has been in office since February 1999. In July 2000, he was elected to a six-year term with 59.5 per cent of all cast ballots. In August 2004, Chávez won a referendum on his tenure with 59 per cent of the vote. The special election was called after opposition organizations in Venezuela gathered 2.5 million signatures to force a recall ballot. In December 2006, Chávez earned a new six-year term with 62.89 per cent of the vote.

In June, Chávez revealed during a televised interview his proposal to reform the country’s constitution for the second time since he took office. The new draft calls for 69 amendments to the Constitution, including the introduction of a clause that would allow the unlimited re-election of the head of state. The president also mentioned he is considering the introduction of a presidential-parliamentary system in Venezuela.

The National Assembly—where pro-Chávez lawmakers control more than two-thirds of the seats— has already approved the president’s proposed draft. A nationwide referendum will take place on Dec. 2.

On Nov. 6, as he launched a campaign in favour of the new Constitution, Chávez called the upcoming referendum "the most important battle" of the "Bolivarian revolution" so far.

Earlier this month, retired defence minister and former Chávez ally Raúl Isaías Baduel defected to the political opposition. On Nov. 16, Baduel urged Venezuelans to vote against the proposed reforms, saying, "There is a perverse subversion of our existing Constitution under way. (...) This is not a reform. I categorize it as a coup d’état."

Polling Data

a) How would you vote in the constitutional referendum?
(Decided Voters)

Yes	51%
No	49%

Source: Hinterlaces / El Nacional
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,113 Venezuelan adults, conducted from Nov. 6 to Nov. 9, 2007. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.

b) How would you vote in the constitutional referendum?
(Decided Voters)

Yes	34%
No	64%

Source: Mercanálisis
Methodology: Interviews with 600 Venezuelan adults in six cities, conducted from Nov. 5 to Nov. 9, 2007. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.