November 17, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two prospective third party presidential candidates in the United States could attract the votes of roughly one-in-eight Americans, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, 39 per cent would back Republican Rudy Giuliani, eight per cent would support a Libertarian Party bid by Ron Paul, and four per cent would vote for Ralph Nader, if he ran as a Green Party candidate.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two prospective third party presidential candidates in the United States could attract the votes of roughly one-in-eight Americans, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, 39 per cent would back Republican Rudy Giuliani, eight per cent would support a Libertarian Party bid by Ron Paul, and four per cent would vote for Ralph Nader, if he ran as a Green Party candidate.

In a separate contest, Rodham Clinton leads Giuliani by five points, with current New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg garnering 11 per cent as an independent candidate.

In American presidential elections, candidates require 270 votes in the U.S. Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican incumbent George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia. As far as the popular vote is concerned, Bush garnered 51.03 per cent of all cast ballots, with Kerry getting 48.04 per cent.

In 1992, Ross Perot received 18.9 per cent of the popular vote as a third party candidate, but won no electoral votes. In 1996, Perot garnered 8.48 per cent of all cast ballots as the Reform Party nominee. Nader was the Green Party’s presidential nominee in 1996 and 2000, and ran as an independent / Reform Party candidate in 2004, garnering 0.34 per cent of the vote.

Paul officially announced his bid for the GOP nomination in March. In 1988, Paul ran for president as a Libertarian Party candidate, garnering 0.5 per cent of the vote.

Earlier this month, Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund reported that "friends" of CNN commentator Lou Dobbs "say he is seriously contemplating (joining the presidential) race for the first time, although it’s still unlikely." Dobbs—whose television program focuses on topics such as "Broken Borders" and "War on the Middle Class"—has no political experience.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton (with Paul and Nader)

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	42%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	39%
Ron Paul (L)	8%
Ralph Nader (G)	4%

Giuliani v. Rodham Clinton (with Bloomberg)

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	43%
Rudy Giuliani (R)	38%
Michael Bloomberg (I)	11%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted from Nov. 9 to Nov. 11, 2007. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.