Polls & Research

Argentina 2007: Cristina 47%, Elisa 16%

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner would emerge victorious in tomorrow’s presidential election in Argentina, according to a poll by Carlos Fara y Asociados. 47 per cent of respondents would vote for the current first lady in the ballot.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 16 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 11 per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with seven per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with two per cent, Jorge Sobisch of United Provinces Movement (MPU) with one per cent, and Fernando Solanas of Project South (PS) also with one per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV). Kirchner was eligible for re-election, but decided to back his wife’s bid instead

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Oct. 25, Fernández de Kirchner discussed her views on pregnancy termination, saying, "I have always defined myself as ‘against abortion.’ I don’t think people who want to decriminalize abortion are actually in favour of it." Lavagna defended existing legislation on the issue, saying, "There can be conflictive situations related to life and the health of a mother, but these are taken care of in the Penal Code."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	47%
Elisa Carrió	16%
Roberto Lavagna	11%
Alberto Rodríguez Saá	7%
Ricardo López Murphy	2%
Jorge Sobisch	1%
Fernando Solanas	1%

Source: Carlos Fara y Asociados
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,100 Argentine adults, conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 21, 2007. No margin of error was provided.