October 21, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A majority of adults in Israel believe the United States should not play the role of arbitrator during next month’s Middle East peace conference, according to the Peace Index Project by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University. 52 per cent of respondents do not think the U.S. should determine what concessions each side should make to enable reaching an agreement.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A majority of adults in Israel believe the United States should not play the role of arbitrator during next month’s Middle East peace conference, according to the Peace Index Project by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University. 52 per cent of respondents do not think the U.S. should determine what concessions each side should make to enable reaching an agreement.

Earlier this year, U.S. president George W. Bush called for an international conference to discuss peace in the Middle East. The event is expected to take place in the U.S. in November with the participation of leaders from Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and representatives from the Arab League, among others. The conference will seek to set the tone for a future peace process that could include a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The former British mandate of Palestine was instituted at the end of World War I, to oversee a territory in the Middle East that formerly belonged to the Ottoman Empire. After the end of World War II and the Nazi holocaust, the Zionist movement succeeded in establishing an internationally recognized homeland. In November 1947, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a resolution calling for the formation of a Jewish state.

In 1948, the British government withdrew from the mandate and the state of Israel was created in roughly 15,000 square kilometres of the mandate’s land, with the remaining areas split under the control of Egypt and Transjordan. Since then, the region has seen constant disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians, represented for decades by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Wars broke out in the region in the second half of the 20th Century, involving Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

Around 750,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their territory during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. An independent Palestinian state is considered the main provision of the road map for peace in the Middle East, developed by The Quartet, which includes the United States, the UN, the European Union (EU) and Russia.

On Oct. 18, Jerusalem councilman Nir Barkat called for negotiators to leave the city outside the conference’s agenda, saying, "There seems to be a feeling among our leaders that they can cut their losses and give up on keeping a united Jerusalem with a Jewish majority. This feeling of desperation has to be replaced immediately and we intend to help make that happen."

The fate of Jerusalem—which is considered holy to Jews, Muslims and Christians—has always been one of the major sticking points during peace negotiations. The largely Arab neighbourhoods of East Jerusalem were captured and annexed by Israel following the 1967 War, in a move that was not recognized internationally.

Polling Data

If in the course of the November conference it turned out that because of the gaps between the two sides’ positions they could not reach an agreement, would it in your opinion be desirable for the United States to play the role of arbitrator and determine what concessions each side should make to enable reaching an agreement?

Yes	41%
No	52%
Not sure	7%

Source: Peace Index Project / Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research / Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict Resolution of Tel Aviv University
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 580 Israeli adults, conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 10, 2007. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.