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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
No Run-Off Favourite Emerges in Guatemala
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The two men vying to become Guatemala’s next president are virtually tied, according to a poll by Borge y Asociados published in El Periódico. 50.71 per cent of decided voters would back Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP), while 49.29 per cent would support Álvaro Colom of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).
The first round of the presidential election in the Central American country took place on Sept. 9. Final results gave Colom 28.23 per cent of the vote, followed by Pérez Molina with 23.51 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off was scheduled for Nov. 4.
Grand National Alliance (GANA) candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.
This year’s election has been marked by episodes of political violence. At least 59 people have been killed while campaigning for last month’s presidential and legislative ballot, and next month’s run-off.
On Oct. 11, Colom strategist José Carlos Marroquín quit the campaign after receiving death threats. Marroquín declared: "No party can guarantee that it is 100 per cent free of influence from organized crime. (Criminals) have many tentacles, and can get into politics through a mayor, a legislator or a financier."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential run-off?
(Decided Voters)
|
Otto Pérez Molina (PP) |
50.71% |
|
Álvaro Colom (UNE) |
49.29% |
Source: Borge y Asociados / El Periódico
Methodology: Interviews with 1,008 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, 2007. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.