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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Sharif Party Leads Before Pakistani Election
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) has become the most popular political organization in the country, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute. 36 per cent of respondents would vote for the PML-N in the next legislative ballot, up 17 points since July.
The Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) is second with 28 per cent, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) with 16 per cent. Support is lower for the Muttahhida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA), the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).
In October 1999, Pervez Musharraf led a military coup to depose Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif. Two years later, Musharraf assumed the presidency. An April 2002 referendum—where less than 30 per cent of eligible voters participated—extended his term until October 2007.
In October 2002, the pro-Musharraf PML-Q elected 69 legislators to the 342-seat National Assembly. Following a deal with the MMA, the legislative branch passed a controversial constitutional amendment which legalized the 1999 coup and gave the president the authority to dissolve the legislative branch with the Supreme Court’s approval.
In May 2005, Musharraf banned exiled political leaders—which include former prime ministers Sharif and Benazir Bhutto—from taking part in the 2008 legislative election. Musharraf has reached a deal with Bhutto, and she is expected to return to Pakistan on Oct. 18.
On Oct. 8, Musharraf apparently won an indirect presidential election, although an official announcement is not expected until Oct. 17, due to pending legal challenges.
On Oct. 12, Musharraf urged Bhutto to delay her return, declaring, "There is a lot happening here. There are court cases and I think she should come after that." Bhutto vowed to travel as scheduled, saying, "Musharraf has no problems with my return but the ruling coalition, especially the PML-Q is afraid of my return."
A parliamentary election must take place in Pakistan by mid-January 2008.
Polling Data
If the elections for the National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?
|
Sept. 2007 |
Jul. 2007 |
|
|
Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz Sharif (PML-N) |
36% |
19% |
|
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) |
28% |
32% |
|
Pakistan Muslim League - Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) |
16% |
23% |
|
Muttahhida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMA) |
5% |
5% |
|
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) |
5% |
4% |
|
Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) |
1% |
2% |
|
Not sure |
5% |
10% |
Source: International Republican Institute
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 4,009 Pakistani adults, conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 13, 2007. Margin of error is 1.58 per cent.
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