October 12, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is a clear frontrunner in the race for Argentina’s presidency, according to a poll by CEOP. 45.7 per cent of respondents would vote for current first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in this month’s ballot, down 3.2 points since August.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - There is a clear frontrunner in the race for Argentina’s presidency, according to a poll by CEOP. 45.7 per cent of respondents would vote for current first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in this month’s ballot, down 3.2 points since August.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 14.6 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 10.2 per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with 4.6 per cent, and Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 3.5 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Rising inflation has become one of the main issues in the presidential campaign. The Kirchner government has been accused of manipulating inflation data ahead of the election. While official data says inflation will stand below the 10 per cent mark this year, other independent surveys have found it could reach 15 to 20 percentage points.

Earlier this month, Carrió criticized Fernández de Kirchner for avoiding the topic of inflation during a conversation with journalists, saying, "The worst error is not to acknowledge the reality of the inflationary problem."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Oct. 2007	Aug. 2007	Jul. 2007
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	45.7%	48.9%	47.0%
Elisa Carrió	14.6%	9.3%	9.5%
Roberto Lavagna	10.2%	11.9%	12.0%
Alberto Rodríguez Saá	4.6%	n.a.	n.a.
Ricardo López Murphy	3.5%	5.5%	6.5%

Source: CEOP
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,931Argentine adults, conducted in early October 2007. Margin of error is 1.8 per cent.