October 07, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Argentina’s current first lady could win this month’s presidential ballot, according to a poll by Analogías. 45 per cent of respondents in the South American country would vote for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the election.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Argentina’s current first lady could win this month’s presidential ballot, according to a poll by Analogías. 45 per cent of respondents in the South American country would vote for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the election.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 11.5 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with nine per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with 3.7 per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 3.3 per cent, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch with 1.7 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Yesterday, Fernando Solanas—who is running for president under the Project South banner—expressed disappointment with current economic policies, saying, "Nobody is questioning the neo-liberal model. (...) This government was built with the same people as the ones of Menem and (former interim president Eduardo) Duhalde; the same people who were told in 2001 to go away."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

	Sept. 2007	Jun. 2007	Feb. 2007
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	45.0%	46.2%	51.7%
Elisa Carrió	11.5%	12.0%	13.9%
Roberto Lavagna	9.0%	11.1%	13.0%
Alberto Rodríguez Saá	3.7%	n.a.	n.a.
Ricardo López Murphy	3.3%	4.1%	5.6%
Jorge Sobisch	1.7%	n.a.	n.a.

Source: Analogías
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted in September 2007. No margin of error was provided.