(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Argentina’s presidential election could be decided on the first round, according to a poll by Equis. 45.9 per cent of respondents would vote for current first lady Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in this month’s ballot.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 14.9 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 13.4 per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with 4.4 per cent, and Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 3.9 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Oct. 3, López Murphy expressed dissatisfaction with the way the Kirchners are campaigning, saying, "They are doing illegal things—the governing dynasty appears to have no limits." The Recreate candidate said he still has time to "convince the people that we have a proposal, leadership and project that are superior to what the current government offers."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

Source: Equis
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 950 Argentine adults, conducted in September 2007. No margin of error was provided.

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