October 04, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner holds a large advantage before this month’s presidential election in Argentina, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 47.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the South American country’s first lady in the ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner holds a large advantage before this month’s presidential election in Argentina, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 47.2 per cent of respondents would vote for the South American country’s first lady in the ballot.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 13 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 12.9 per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with five per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with four per cent, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch with 1.6 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

On Oct. 2, Argentinean interior minister Aníbal Fernández said a run-off is practically impossible, adding, "There is not a single poll that gives a chance to the opposition’s candidates." Fernández insisted that the election has not been decided, adding, "The motto of our campaign is ‘Every day we need to gain one more vote’."

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

	Sept. 2007	Aug. 2007
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	47.2%	49.8%
Elisa Carrió	13.0%	9.9%
Roberto Lavagna	12.9%	10.7%
Alberto Rodríguez Saá	5.0%	1.0%
Ricardo López Murphy	4.0%	4.4%
Jorge Sobisch	1.6%	1.1%

Source: Hugo Haime y Asociados
Methodology: Interviews to 3,000 Argentine voters, conducted in September 2007. No margin of error was provided.