Polls & Research

Romney, Obama Are Leaders in Iowa

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mitt Romney is the top United States presidential contender for Republican Party supporters in the Hawkeye State, according to a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates released by Newsweek. 24 per cent of likely GOP caucus voters would back the former Massachusetts governor in 2008.

Actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is second with 16 per cent, followed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 13 per cent, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 12 per cent. Support is lower for Arizona senator John McCain, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, and California congressman Duncan Hunter.

On Aug. 11, Romney won the Iowa straw poll with 31 per cent of the vote. Huckabee finished second with 18 per cent. Giuliani and McCain did not take part in the process.

In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, Illinois senator Barack Obama is first with 28 per cent, followed by New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton with 24 per cent, former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 22 per cent, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 10 per cent. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joe Biden, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If you were attending a Republican caucus today, which one of the following nine presidential candidates are you most likely to support? (Likely Republican Caucus Goers)

Mitt Romney	24%
Fred Thompson	16%
Rudy Giuliani	13%
Mike Huckabee	12%
John McCain	9%
Ron Paul	5%
Tom Tancredo	3%
Sam Brownback	2%
Duncan Hunter	1%
Undecided	15%

If you were attending a Democratic caucus today, which one of the following eight presidential candidates are you most likely to support? (Likely Democratic Caucus Goers)

Barack Obama	28%
Hillary Rodham Clinton	24%
John Edwards	22%
Bill Richardson	10%
Joe Biden	5%
Dennis Kucinich	1%
Chris Dodd	1%
Undecided	9%

Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates / Newsweek
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,215 Iowa voters, conducted on Sept. 26 and Sept. 27, 2007. Margins of error are 9 per cent (likely Republican caucus goers) and 7 per cent (likely Democratic caucus goers).