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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Odinga Overtakes Kibaki in Kenya
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for Raila Odinga has increased dramatically in Kenya, according to a poll by Steadman Research Services. 47 per cent of respondents in the African country would vote for the former roads and public works minister in this year’s presidential election, up 22 points since June.
Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) is second with 38 per cent, followed by former environment minister Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM-Kenya) with eight per cent.
In the 2002 presidential election, NARC candidate Kibaki defeated Uhuru Kenyatta of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. Kibaki had served as vice-president under Daniel arap Moi.
On Sept. 1, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) chose Odinga as its presidential candidate after an internal ballot. Odinga defeated four rivals—Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto, Joseph Nyaga and Najib Balala—by a large margin. After earning the ODM nod, Odinga declared: "The coming election will be a fight between the forces for the retention of the status quo and the forces for change."
On Sept. 28, Kibaki discussed his views on the upcoming democratic process, saying, "The election is near, if you look keenly; even you can guess."
The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for December.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?
|
Sept. 2007 |
Jun. 2007 |
Mar. 2007 |
|
|
Raila Odinga (ODM) |
47% |
25% |
17% |
|
Mwai Kibaki (NARC) |
38% |
45% |
51% |
|
Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya) |
8% |
11% |
14% |
Source: Steadman Research Services
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,020 Kenyan adults in the eight provinces, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 25, 2007. No margin of error was provided.