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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Pérez Molina Could Win Guatemalan Run-Off
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriot Party (PP) could become the next president of Guatemala, according to a poll by Vox Latina released by Prensa Libre. 54.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the right-wing candidate in next month’s run-off, while 45.6 per cent would support Álvaro Colom of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).
The first round of the presidential election in the Central American country took place on Sept. 9. Final results gave Colom 28.23 per cent of the vote, followed by Pérez Molina with 23.51 per cent. Since no candidate garnered more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off was scheduled for Nov. 4.
Grand National Alliance (GANA) candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.
This year’s election has been marked by episodes of political violence. At least 50 people were killed while campaigning for last month’s presidential and legislative ballot.
On Sept. 29, Pérez Molina expressed satisfaction with the numbers, saying, "We believe that after the first round, there was a shift in our favour. We hope this trend continues until election day." Colom declared: "I don’t want to fight. I’m going to see my own poll and if it looks just like this one, there’s no problem. If it is different, we’re going to have trouble."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential run-off?
(Decided Voters)
|
Otto Pérez Molina (PP) |
54.4% |
|
Álvaro Colom (UNE) |
45.6% |
Source: Vox Latina / Prensa Libre
Methodology: Interviews with 1,206 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.