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Tight Democratic Race Develops in Iowa

October 01, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton is barely ahead of two rivals in Iowa, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 24 per cent of likely United States presidential caucus goers in the Hawkeye State would vote for the New York senator, while 22 per cent would support former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is third with 21 per cent, followed by New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 13 per cent. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joe Biden, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich.

In the sample of Republican Party supporters, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is first with 30 per cent, followed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 per cent, actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 13 per cent, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with eight per cent. Support is lower for Arizona senator John McCain, former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, and California congressman Duncan Hunter.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Sept. 2007

Aug. 2007

Apr. 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton

24%

21%

19%

John Edwards

22%

23%

27%

Barack Obama

21%

22%

20%

Bill Richardson

13%

14%

4%

Joe Biden

4%

5%

4%

Chris Dodd

1%

1%

1%

Dennis Kucinich

1%

1%

1%

Wesley Clark

n.a.

n.a.

1%

Undecided

14%

13%

23%

If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were held today, for whom would you vote?

 

Sept. 2007

Aug. 2007

Apr. 2007

Mitt Romney

30%

31%

8%

Rudy Giuliani

17%

13%

25%

Fred Thompson

13%

15%

11%

Mike Huckabee

8%

8%

2%

John McCain

6%

8%

20%

Newt Gingrich

5%

3%

6%

Ron Paul

3%

3%

1%

Tom Tancredo

2%

3%

2%

Sam Brownback

2%

2%

3%

Duncan Hunter

1%

1%

1%

Jim Gilmore

n.a.

n.a.

1%

Tommy Thompson

n.a.

n.a.

3%

Undecided

13%

13%

15%

Source: Strategic Vision
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.