September 25, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A potential coalition between two opposition candidates might hold the key to take away the Paraguayan presidency from the right-leaning National Republican Association - Red Party (ANR), according to a poll by First Análisis y Estudios published in ABC Color. 51.1 per cent of respondents would vote for a ticket encompassing Lino Oviedo and Fernando Lugo in next year’s election, up 11 points since July.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A potential coalition between two opposition candidates might hold the key to take away the Paraguayan presidency from the right-leaning National Republican Association - Red Party (ANR), according to a poll by First Análisis y Estudios published in ABC Color. 51.1 per cent of respondents would vote for a ticket encompassing Lino Oviedo and Fernando Lugo in next year’s election, up 11 points since July.

The still undefined ANR ticket garners the support of 32.2 per cent of respondents. If Lugo became the presidential candidate and Oviedo his running mate, 49.4 per cent of respondents would support them, while 35.2 per cent would back the candidates of the governing party.

Nicanor Duarte won the April 2003 presidential election as the ANR candidate with 37.1 per cent of all cast ballots. The ANR has been involved in Paraguay’s government since 1947, even during the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner. Duarte is not eligible for a new term.

The ANR candidate will be defined in a primary election scheduled for December. The list of contenders includes current vice-president Luis Castiglioni, current education minister Blanca Ovelar, and ANR leader José Alberto Alderete.

Lugo is a former Catholic Bishop who worked mainly in poor areas in the country. Oviedo is a former army general and the founder of the National Union of Ethical Citizens (UNACE). He has been a prominent figure in Paraguay’s recent history, particularly for assisting a popular uprising that saw the end of the Stroessner dictatorship. In 1998, Oviedo was charged, convicted and sentenced for mutiny over an alleged coup against the government of Juan Carlos Wasmosy in April 1996.

On Sept. 6, Oviedo was released from a Paraguayan prison after his term was reduced for good behaviour.

On Sept. 17, Lugo oversaw the creation of the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC)—which brings together seven opposition parties—and ruled out an eventual agreement with Oviedo.

On Sept. 22, Lugo said he is the only true leftist in the presidential race, saying, "The majority of people in Paraguay are leftists, because they are looking for a real change. Some people do not understand what the word ‘left’ means. To me it means, ‘the people who want change’."

The next presidential election is scheduled for April 2008.

Polling Data

Which ticket would you support in the next presidential election?

Option 1

	Sept. 2007	Jul. 2007
Lino Oviedo / Fernando Lugo	51.1%	40.1%
The ANR ticket	32.2%	35.4%
Neither	11.5%	16.1%
Not sure	5.2%	8.4%

Option 2

	Sept. 2007	Jul. 2007
Fernando Lugo / Lino Oviedo	49.4%	47.2%
The ANR ticket	35.2%	34.1%
Neither	9.8%	13.0%
Not sure	5.6%	5.7%

Source: First Análisis y Estudios / ABC Color
Methodology: Interviews with 1,111 Paraguayan adults, conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 14, 2007. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.