September 23, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Lebanon think their next head of state should undertake more responsibilities, according to a poll by Ipsos. 69 per cent of respondents in the Beirut and Mount Lebanon areas think the next president should play a major role in domestic politics, while 31 per cent prefer a neutral figure that helps resolve conflicts between rival political factions.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many people in Lebanon think their next head of state should undertake more responsibilities, according to a poll by Ipsos. 69 per cent of respondents in the Beirut and Mount Lebanon areas think the next president should play a major role in domestic politics, while 31 per cent prefer a neutral figure that helps resolve conflicts between rival political factions.

In Lebanon, the president is elected to a six-year term by the Assembly of Representatives. The country’s laws establish that the three main posts in the government—the president, the prime minister and the speaker of the Assembly—must be occupied by a Christian Maronite, a Sunni Muslim and a Shiite Muslim respectively.

The Assembly of Representatives is expected to elect a president within the next two months. 40.8 per cent of respondents want a president with a university degree, while 24.8 per cent think the next head of state should be a military figure. Support is lower for a technocrat, a businessman or a member of a traditional political family.

Emil Lahoud has served as president since November 1998. Lahoud—a close ally of Syria—is the son of Jamil Lahoud, an independence leader. He acted as the army’s chief of staff before being elected president.

In September 2004, Lahoud’s term was extended by three years. Lebanese voters renewed the Assembly of Representatives in 2005. Fuad Siniora—a former finance minister and an anti-Syrian politician—was appointed as Lebanon’s new prime minister after the ballot.

Siniora’s government has been marked by constant disagreements between pro-Western government factions and the pro-Syrian opposition, which includes members of militant group Hezbollah.

On Sept. 19, a car bombing in a suburb of Beirut killed nine people, including anti-Syrian lawmaker Antoine Ghanem. The Assembly’s anti-Syrian coalition issued a statement, which read: "The Syrian regime has taken the decision to bring down the Lebanese republic. It has assigned its intelligence agencies to liquidate the lawmakers."

Despite the national commotion caused by the attack, Lebanese lawmakers have vowed to hold the first round of the presidential vote as planned on Sept. 25. Yesterday, Assembly speaker Nabih Berri commented on the possibility of a boycott by opposition lawmakers, saying, "If a quorum is not reached, we will postpone (the vote)."

Polling Data

Which of these two statements do you agree with the most?

The new president should have a greater role in domestic politics	69%
The new president should be neutral and help resolve conflicts between the country’s rival political factions	31%

Which of these characteristics would you want the next president to have?

A person with a university degree	40.8%
A military figure	24.8%
A technocrat	14.3%
A businessman	12.8%
Someone from a traditional political family	7.5%

Source: Ipsos
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 500 Lebanese adults in the Beirut and Mount Lebanon areas, conducted in September 2007. No margin of error was provided.