September 08, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is holding on to the lead before tomorrow’s presidential election in Guatemala, according to a poll by Demoscopía published in Siglo XXI. 34.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Álvaro Colom is holding on to the lead before tomorrow’s presidential election in Guatemala, according to a poll by Demoscopía published in Siglo XXI. 34.7 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).

Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriot Party (PP) is second with 26.8 per cent, followed by Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) with 13.5 per cent, Eduardo Suger of Centre for Social Action (CAS) with 6.2 per cent, Luis Rabbé of the Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG) with 4.5 per cent, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG) with 3.7 per cent.

In a prospective run-off scenario, Pérez Molina is ahead with 50.7 per cent, with Colom at 49.3 per cent.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

This year’s election has been marked by episodes of political violence. At least 50 people have been killed while campaigning for tomorrow’s presidential and legislative ballot.

Yesterday, Organization of American States (OEA) electoral observer Diego García-Sayán called on the current Guatemalan government to investigate the killings, saying, "Each of these events must be probed in order to substantiate or dismiss any political motives."

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place today?

(Valid Votes)

	Sept. 2007	Aug. 2007	Jul. 2007
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	34.7%	41.1%	43.6%
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	26.8%	30.0%	23.8%
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)	13.5%	9.5%	14.1%
Eduardo Suger (CAS)	6.2%	4.3%	1.2%
Luis Rabbé (FRG)	4.5%	4.8%	3.0%
Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)	3.7%	5.0%	5.8%

Run-Off Scenario

	Sept. 2007
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	50.7%
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	49.3%

Source: Demoscopía / Siglo XXI

Methodology: Interviews to 3,135 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Aug. 25 to Sept. 1, 2007. Margin of error is 1.8 per cent.