September 07, 2007

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The presidential election in Guatemala is headed for a run-off, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 31.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriot Party (PP) in this Sunday’s first round, while 31.7 per cent would support Álvaro Colom of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The presidential election in Guatemala is headed for a run-off, according to a poll by Vox Latina published in Prensa Libre. 31.8 per cent of respondents would vote for Otto Pérez Molina of the Patriot Party (PP) in this Sunday’s first round, while 31.7 per cent would support Álvaro Colom of the leftist National Union of Hope (UNE).

Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) is third with 14.6 per cent, followed by Eduardo Suger of Centre for Social Action (CAS) with 8.4 per cent, Luis Rabbé of the Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG) with 4.5 per cent, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG) with 3.1 per cent.

Support for Pérez Molina among decided voters increased by 1.9 points since mid-August, while backing for Colom fell by 5.9 per cent.

GANA candidate Óscar Berger won the 2003 presidential election in a run-off, defeating Colom with 54.13 per cent of all cast ballots. Berger is constitutionally barred from seeking a new term in office.

This year’s election has been marked by episodes of political violence. At least 50 people have been killed while campaigning for this weekend’s presidential and legislative ballot.

On Sept. 4, Pérez Molina discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "The other candidate (Colom) has already said that he let me grew. This is a desperate measure provoked by our success, and we will not fall into a campaign of disrepute."

On Sept. 6, Colom challenged Pérez Molina to a one-on-one debate, saying, "I would like to discuss security in a deeper way." Pérez Molina said he would agree to the meeting "after the first round."

The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

(Decided Voters)

	Sept. 3	Aug. 15	Jul. 2007
Otto Pérez Molina (PP)	31.8%	29.9%	26.7%
Álvaro Colom (UNE)	31.7%	37.6%	39.5%
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA)	14.6%	13.1%	15.1%
Eduardo Suger (CAS)	8.4%	5.4%	4.6%
Luis Rabbé (FRG)	4.5%	3.4%	2.6%
Rigoberta Menchú (EPG)	3.1%	4.1%	4.5%

Source: Vox Latina / Prensa Libre

Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 3, 2007. Margin of error is 4.1 per cent.