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Iowa Puts Romney, Hillary in First Place
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More GOP supporters in Iowa want Mitt Romney to become their United States presidential candidate, according to a poll by American Research Group. 27 per cent of likely Republican Party caucus voters in the Hawkeye State would back the former Massachusetts governor in 2008, up six points since April.
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 17 per cent, followed by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with 14 per cent, and actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 13 per cent. Support is lower for former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, Arizona senator John McCain, California congressman Duncan Hunter, and Texas congressman Ron Paul.
On Aug. 11, Romney won the Iowa straw poll with 31 per cent of the vote. Huckabee finished second with 18 per cent. Giuliani and McCain did not take part in the process.
In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 28 per cent, followed by Illinois senator Barack Obama with 23 per cent, former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 20 per cent, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 13 per cent. Support is lower for Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, Delaware senator Joe Biden, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.
Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.
In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.
Polling Data
If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Aug. 2007 | Jul. 2007 | Jun. 2007 | |
Mitt Romney | 27% | 21% | 25% |
Rudy Giuliani | 17% | 22% | 18% |
Mike Huckabee | 14% | 1% | 1% |
Fred Thompson | 13% | 13% | 14% |
Newt Gingrich | 7% | 4% | 5% |
John McCain | 5% | 17% | 13% |
Duncan Hunter | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Ron Paul | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Sam Brownback | -- | 1% | 3% |
Tom Tancredo | -- | 1% | 1% |
Tommy Thompson | n.a. | 2% | 1% |
Chuck Hagel | n.a. | n.a. | 1% |
Undecided | 15% | 15% | 14% |
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Aug. 2007 | Jul. 2007 | Jun. 2007 | |
Hillary Rodham Clinton | 28% | 30% | 32% |
Barack Obama | 23% | 15% | 13% |
John Edwards | 20% | 21% | 29% |
Bill Richardson | 13% | 13% | 5% |
Dennis Kucinich | 3% | 2% | 1% |
Joe Biden | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Chris Dodd | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Mike Gravel | -- | -- | 1% |
Wesley Clark | n.a. | -- | 1% |
Undecided | 11% | 15% | 14% |
Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, conducted from Aug. 26 to Aug. 30, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.