Polls & Research

First Lady Widens Lead in Argentina

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Cristina Fernández de Kircher has increased her chances of becoming Argentina's next president, according to a poll by CEOP. 48.9 per cent of respondents would vote for current head of state Néstor Kirchner's wife in this year's ballot, up 1.9 points since July.

Former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) is a distant second with 11.9 per cent, followed by Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) with 9.3 per cent, and Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 5.5 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

Last month, Fernández de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband later this year as the FV candidate. The current head of state was eligible for re-election, but decided to back his wife's bid instead.

On Aug. 21, Menem criticized Fernández de Kirchner, saying, "She is not ready to be a candidate. She is a proud woman, full of hatred and with a bunch of ambitions that evidently have nothing to do with what Argentines need at this trying time."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

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