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Pérez Molina Closer to Colom in Guatemala
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Two candidates appear headed for the second round in Guatemala's presidential race, according to a poll by Demoscopía published in Siglo XXI. 41.1 per cent of respondents would vote for Álvaro Colom of the left-leaning National Union of Hope (UNE) in this year's ballot, down 2.5 points since July.
Otto Pérez Molina of the right-wing Patriot Party (PP) is second with 30 per cent—up 6.2 points in a month—followed by Alejandro Giammattei of the Grand National Alliance (GANA) with 9.5 per cent, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Rigoberta Menchú of Encounter for Guatemala (EPG) with five per cent, Luis Rabbé of the Republican Guatemalan Front (FRG) with 4.8 per cent, and Eduardo Suger of Centre for Social Action (CAS) with 4.3 per cent.
The presidential election is scheduled for Sept. 9. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on Nov. 4. In a prospective second round scenario, Colom is first with 41.4 per cent, followed by Pérez Molina with 39.3 per cent.
Earlier this month, José Dávila, the head of the Central American Institute of Political Studies (INCEP), revealed that since the electoral campaign officially began on May 2, at least 38 people have been killed in Guatemala, including activists, candidates and political leaders. INCEP is part of Election Watch 2007, a coalition of five non-governmental organizations monitoring the campaign.
On Aug. 15, Authentic Integral Development (DIA) presidential candidate Héctor Rosales said members of a rival party attacked his convoy during a campaign event, adding "The men wore FRG caps, jackets and T-shirts."
Polling Data
Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place today?
(Valid Votes)
Aug. 2007 | Jul. 2007 | |
Álvaro Colom (UNE) | 41.1% | 43.6% |
Otto Pérez Molina (PP) | 30.0% | 23.8% |
Alejandro Giammattei (GANA) | 9.5% | 14.1% |
Rigoberta Menchú (EPG) | 5.0% | 5.8% |
Luis Rabbé (FRG) | 4.8% | 3.0% |
Eduardo Suger (CAS) | 4.3% | 1.2% |
Run-Off Scenario
Álvaro Colom (UNE) | 41.4% |
Otto Pérez Molina (PP) | 39.3% |
Source: Demoscopía / Siglo XXI
Methodology: Interviews to 1,216 Guatemalan adults, conducted from Jul. 29 to Aug. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
