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Hillary Leads Romney, Ties Thompson in U.S.

July 10, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton could defeat a Republican United States presidential hopeful in 2008, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator, while 42 per cent would support former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Support for Rodham Clinton in this match-up fell by four points since mid-June, while backing for Romney increased by one point.

In a separate contest, Rodham Clinton is tied with actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. In surveys conducted in mid-June and May, the Democrat was ahead of Thompson.

On Jul. 7 in Florida, Thompson said the Republicans have a good chance of winning the 2008 presidential election, declaring, "I don't think the people are going to turn the keys to this country over to the party of despair and division." Romney discussed his views on terrorism, saying, "Iraq has become a front in the war against jihadists. And the jihadists from all over the world have gathered there and are fighting there tooth and nail. They want to see us lose, and that would be a huge rallying cry for their effort."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Polling Data

Possible match-ups - 2008 U.S. presidential election

Romney v. Rodham Clinton

Jun. 28

Jun. 12

May 10

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

46%

50%

47%

Mitt Romney (R)

42%

41%

44%

F. Thompson v. Rodham Clinton

Jun. 28

Jun. 12

May 10

Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)

45%

48%

47%

Fred Thompson (R)

45%

43%

44%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 American likely voters, conducted on Jun. 27 and Jun. 28, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.