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In Iowa, Romney and Hillary Hold Upper Hand
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Mitt Romney is the most popular 2008 United States presidential hopeful for Republican Party backers in Iowa, according to a poll by American Research Group. 25 per cent of likely GOP caucus voters in the Hawkeye State would back the former Massachusetts governor in 2008, up nine points since May.
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 18 per cent, followed by actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 14 per cent, and Arizona senator John McCain with 13 per cent. Support is lower for former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, California congressman Duncan Hunter, and Texas congressman Ron Paul.
In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 32 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 29 per cent, and Illinois senator Barack Obama with 13 per cent. Support is lower for New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Delaware senator Joe Biden, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, retired general Wesley Clark, and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel.
Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.
The Republican Party will hold an unofficial straw poll of candidates in Iowa in August 2007, before the actual caucus in 2008.
In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.
Polling Data
If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Jun. 2007 | May 2007 | Apr. 2007 | |
Mitt Romney | 25% | 16% | 14% |
Rudy Giuliani | 18% | 23% | 19% |
Fred Thompson | 14% | 6% | 13% |
John McCain | 13% | 25% | 26% |
Newt Gingrich | 5% | 8% | 8% |
Sam Brownback | 3% | 3% | 1% |
Tom Tancredo | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Mike Huckabee | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Chuck Hagel | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Tommy Thompson | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Duncan Hunter | 1% | -- | -- |
Ron Paul | 1% | -- | -- |
Jim Gilmore | -- | 1% | 1% |
Undecided | 14% | 10% | 12% |
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Jun. 2007 | May 2007 | Apr. 2007 | |
Hillary Rodham Clinton | 32% | 31% | 23% |
John Edwards | 29% | 25% | 27% |
Barack Obama | 13% | 11% | 19% |
Bill Richardson | 5% | 8% | 5% |
Joe Biden | 2% | 3% | 6% |
Chris Dodd | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Dennis Kucinich | 1% | 4% | 2% |
Wesley Clark | 1% | 1% | -- |
Mike Gravel | 1% | 1% | -- |
Undecided | 14% | 14% | 16% |
Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, conducted from Jun. 26 to Jun. 30, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.