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France 2007: Sarkozy 26.5%, Royal 25.5%
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Tomorrow's presidential election in France could be very close, according to a poll by CSA published in Le Parisien. 26.5 per cent of respondents would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), while 25.5 per cent would support Socialist Party (PS) candidate Ségolène Royal.
Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) is third with 16.5 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 16 per cent.
Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers.
Sarkozy served as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy and Royal are tied with 50 per cent each.
Yesterday, Le Pen predicted a surprise in the election, adding, "They have all moved right except me. (...) I have no quarrel with Sarkozy and he has been the picture of courtesy with me. We are like two boxers in a match, not enemies."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?
Apr. 20 | Apr. 19 | Apr. 16 | Apr. 12 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 26.5% | 27% | 27% | 26% |
Ségolène Royal | 25.5% | 26% | 25% | 23% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 16.5% | 16% | 15.5% | 15% |
François Bayrou | 16% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
Olivier Besancenot | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% |
Marie-George Buffet | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 2.5% |
Arlette Laguiller | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
José Bové | 1.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
Dominique Voynet | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2% | 1% |
Frédéric Nihous | 1.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 2% |
Philippe de Villiers | 1.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
Run-Off Scenario
Apr. 20 | Apr. 19 | Apr. 16 | Apr. 12 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
Ségolène Royal | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,002 French adults, conducted on Apr. 20, 2007. No margin of error was provided.