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Sarkozy’s Lead Disappears in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy is barely holding on to the top spot in the French presidential race, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 28 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's election.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is a close second with 27 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 20 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 12 per cent.
Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), and Gérard Schivardi of the Worker's Party (PT).
Sarkozy served as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a two-point advantage over Royal.
On Mar. 22, Bayrou called for a "peaceful revolution" in a campaign event, adding, "What France needs is for these two parties in power for 25 years to be thrown out of power—out of the comfort of power and the comfort of the opposition."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
Mar. 27 | Mar. 20 | Mar. 13 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 28% | 31% | 29% |
Ségolène Royal | 27% | 24% | 23% |
François Bayrou | 20% | 17% | 21% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 12% | 13% | 13% |
Olivier Besancenot | 4.5% | 4% | 3% |
Arlette Laguiller | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Marie-George Buffet | 2% | 4% | 3% |
Philippe de Villiers | 1% | 1% | 2% |
José Bové | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Dominique Voynet | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Gérard Schivardi | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Frédéric Nihous | -- | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Run-Off Scenarios
Sarkozy v. Royal
Mar. 27 | Mar. 20 | Mar. 13 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 51% | 54% | 51% |
Ségolène Royal | 49% | 46% | 49% |
Source: BVA / Orange
Methodology: Interviews with 958 registered French voters, conducted on Mar. 26 and Mar. 27, 2007. No margin of error was provided.