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Four-Point Lead for Sarkozy in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy remains the most popular contender in the French presidential election, according to a poll by Ifop published in Paris Match. 28 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's ballot.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 21 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 14 per cent.
Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, and Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT).
Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by eight points.
Yesterday, Sarkozy responded to outgoing French president Jacques Chirac's endorsement—which some have deemed as half-hearted and belated—saying, "I am very touched by this decision. It is important for me on a political level, as well as on a personal level."
The UMP's Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
Mar. 19 | Mar. 17 | Mar. 9 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 28% | 26% | 28% |
Ségolène Royal | 24% | 24% | 23% |
François Bayrou | 21% | 22.5% | 23% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 14% | 14% | 13% |
Olivier Besancenot | 4% | 3% | 3.5% |
Arlette Laguiller | 2% | 3% | 2% |
Marie-George Buffet | 3% | 2% | 2% |
José Bové | 1.5% | 2% | 1.5% |
Dominique Voynet | 1% | 1.5% | 1% |
Philippe de Villiers | 1% | 1.5% | 1% |
Frédéric Nihous | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1% |
Gérard Schivardi | -- | -- | 0.5% |
Corinne Lepage | n.a. | n.a. | 0.5% |
Run-Off Scenarios
Sarkozy v. Royal
Mar. 19 | Mar. 17 | Feb. 23 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 53% | 51.5% | 50.5% |
Ségolène Royal | 47% | 48.5% | 49.5% |
Sarkozy v. Bayrou
Mar. 19 | Feb. 15 | Jan. 20 | |
François Bayrou | 54% | 52% | 49% |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 46% | 48% | 51% |
Source: Ifop / Paris Match
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 872 French registered voters, conducted on Mar. 19, 2007. No margin of error was provided.