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Bayrou is Run-Off Favourite in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Nicolas Sarkozy continues to lead all presidential contenders in France, according to a poll by TNS-Sofres released by Unilog. 31 per cent of respondents would support the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's election.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 22 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 12 per cent.
Support is lower for Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), farmer-activist José Bové, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), and Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers.
Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds an eight-point advantage over Royal. In addition, Bayrou leads Sarkozy by eight points, and Royal by 20 points.
On Mar. 17, Royal criticized Sarkozy's proposal to create a ministry of national immigration and national identity, saying, "It is intolerable that one can think that normal immigration is a risk for the national identity."
The UMP's Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
Mar. 15 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 1 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 31% | 27% | 31% |
Ségolène Royal | 24% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
François Bayrou | 22% | 23% | 18.5% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 12% | 12% | 12% |
Marie-George Buffet | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
Olivier Besancenot | 2% | 4% | 3% |
Arlette Laguiller | 2% | 2.5% | 2% |
José Bové | 2% | 1.5% | 2% |
Dominique Voynet | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Philippe de Villiers | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1% |
Run-off scenarios
Sarkozy v. Royal
Mar. 15 | Mar. 8 | Mar. 1 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 54% | 52% | 54% |
Ségolène Royal | 46% | 48% | 46% |
Sarkozy v. Bayrou
Mar. 15 | |
François Bayrou | 54% |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 46% |
Royal v. Bayrou
Mar. 15 | |
François Bayrou | 60% |
Ségolène Royal | 40% |
Source: TNS-Sofres / Unilog
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on Mar. 14 and Mar. 15, 2007. No margin of error was provided.