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Sarkozy Falls, Bayrou Gains in France

March 16, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for Nicolas Sarkozy fell in France, according to a tracking poll by Ipsos released by SFR and Le Point. 28.5 per cent of respondents would vote the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in next month's presidential election.

Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 24 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 23 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 13.5 per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), farmer-activist José Bové, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, and Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT).

Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal.

Yesterday, Le Pen submitted the 500 signatures from elected officials in 30 regions required to register his candidacy, declaring, "There was a deliberate, organized attempt at sabotage. It was very worrying. It was harder than in 2002."

The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Mar. 14

Mar. 10

Mar. 7

Nicolas Sarkozy

28.5%

31%

32.5%

Ségolène Royal

24%

25.5%

27%

François Bayrou

23%

21.5%

19%

Jean-Marie Le Pen

13.5%

12.5%

12.5%

Olivier Besancenot

3%

2.5%

2%

Marie-George Buffet

2.5%

2%

2%

José Bové

1.5%

1%

1.5%

Arlette Laguiller

2%

1.5%

1%

Dominique Voynet

1%

1.5%

0.5%

Philippe de Villiers

0.5%

0.5%

1%

Frédéric Nihous

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

Corinne Lepage

n.a.

--

0.5%

Run-Off Scenario

Mar. 14

Mar. 10

Mar. 7

Nicolas Sarkozy

53%

53.5%

53%

Ségolène Royal

47%

46.5%

47%

Source: Ipsos / SFR / Le Point
Methodology: Interviews with 1,005 French adults, conducted from Mar. 12 to Mar. 14, 2007. No margin of error was provided.