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Three-Candidate Race Evident in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Next month's presidential election in France is too close to call, according to a poll by CSA published in Le Parisien. 26 per cent of respondents would support Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP).
In addition, 25 per cent of respondents would back Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS), and 24 per cent would vote for Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou.
Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) is fourth with 14 per cent. Support is lower for farmer-activist José Bové, Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), Corinne Lepage of Citizenship, Action, Participation for the 21st Century, and National Assembly member Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.
Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a six-point advantage over Royal.
On Mar. 9, Sarkozy's campaign announced that former European Parliament president and UDF minister Simone Veil had endorsed the UMP contender. Veil declared that Bayrou "does not represent the centre at all," adding, "He only represents himself."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Among the following candidates, who are you most likely to vote for in the first round of the presidential election?
Mar. 7 | Feb. 28 | Feb. 20 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 26% | 29% | 28% |
Ségolène Royal | 25% | 29% | 29% |
François Bayrou | 24% | 17% | 17% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 14% | 14% | 14% |
José Bové | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Olivier Besancenot | 2.5% | 2% | 2.5% |
Marie-George Buffet | 1% | 2.5% | 2% |
Philippe de Villiers | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Dominique Voynet | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Arlette Laguiller | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Frédéric Nihous | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Corinne Lepage | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Run-Off Scenario
Mar. 7 | Feb. 28 | Feb. 20 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 53% | 52% | 51% |
Ségolène Royal | 47% | 48% | 49% |
Source: CSA / Le Parisien
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 917 French adults, conducted on Mar. 7, 2007. No margin of error was provided.