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Conservatives Have Ten-Point Lead in Canada

March 09, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - The Conservative party remains the most popular political organization in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 38 per cent of decided voters would support the Tories in the next federal election.

The Liberal party is second with 28 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 15 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with seven per cent. Support for the Tories dropped by two points in a week, while backing for the Grits increased by the same margin.

In Quebec, the Bloc has the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, with the Conservatives in second place with 25 per cent, and the Liberals third with 24 per cent. In Ontario, the governing party holds a five-point advantage over the official opposition. The Tories are the most popular political organization in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, while the Grits are ahead in Atlantic Canada.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January 2006. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December 2006, former environment minister Stéphane Dion became the new leader of the Liberals.

Yesterday, Dion criticized Harper during a speech in Ottawa, saying, "While the rest of the world sets ambitious targets and commits major resources, the Harper government fails to invest in our long term economic prosperity. (...) This is a government that is squandering our opportunity and failing to plan for Canada's future."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for?

Mar. 7

Feb. 27

The Conservative Party,
led by Stephen Harper

38%

40%

The Liberal Party,
led by Stéphane Dion

28%

26%

The New Democratic Party
(NDP), led by Jack Layton

15%

15%

The Bloc Quebecois,
led by Gilles Duceppe

11%

10%

The Green Party,
led by Elizabeth May

7%

8%

Or, some other party

1%

1%

Provincial Breakdown

BC

Alta.

Sask. /
Man.

Ont.

Que.

Atl.

The Conservative Party,
led by Stephen Harper

37%

62%

45%

41%

25%

34%

The Liberal Party,
led by Stéphane Dion

19%

18%

21%

36%

24%

38%

The New Democratic Party
(NDP), led by Jack Layton

32%

3%

20%

15%

9%

24%

The Bloc Quebecois,
led by Gilles Duceppe

--

--

--

--

37%

--

The Green Party,
led by Elizabeth May

12%

15%

13%

7%

4%

2%

Or, some other party

1%

2%

1%

--

2%

1%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,059 Canadian adults, conducted on Mar. 6 and Mar. 7, 2007. Margin of error is 3.0 per cent.