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Sarkozy’s Gain is Royal’s Loss in France
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Support for Nicolas Sarkozy increased this month in France, according to a poll by Louis-Harris released by RMC. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) candidate in this year's presidential election, up two points in a week.
Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is second with 27 per cent, followed by Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with 13 per cent, and Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with nine per cent.
Support is lower for Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, Arlette Laguiller of Workers' Struggle (LO), Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts), farmer-activist José Bové, Frédéric Nihous of Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and Corinne Lepage of Citizenship, Action, Participation for the 21st Century.
Sarkozy currently serves as France's interior minister. Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. In a prospective run-off scenario, Sarkozy holds a four-point advantage over Royal.
On Feb. 7, Royal accused the media of portraying her in a bad light. During a speech in Paris, she said: "Those facing me and their people in the media have already written me off. [I've been] accused of shortcomings and lack of strength, pilloried in squalid publications, on the front page of weeklies linked to those in power. Why all these publications? There is so much money to make, and—if the left wins—so much money to lose for these finance and media conglomerates."
The UMP's Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.
Polling Data
Which candidate would you support in the first round of the presidential election?
Feb. 3 | Jan. 27 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 33% | 31% |
Ségolène Royal | 27% | 29% |
François Bayrou | 13% | 14% |
Jean-Marie Le Pen | 9% | 10% |
Marie-George Buffet | 3% | 5% |
Olivier Besancenot | 3% | 2% |
Philippe de Villiers | 3% | 2% |
Arlette Laguiller | 3% | 2% |
Dominique Voynet | 2% | 2% |
José Bové | 2.5% | 2% |
Frédéric Nihous | 1% | 0.5% |
Corinne Lepage | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Run-Off Scenario
Feb. 3 | Jan. 27 | |
Nicolas Sarkozy | 52% | 51% |
Ségolène Royal | 48% | 49% |
Source: Louis-Harris / RMC
Methodology: Interviews with 1,004 French adults, conducted on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, 2007. No margin of error was provided.