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Giuliani Leads, Hillary Gains in Iowa
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Rudy Giuliani is the top 2008 United States presidential hopeful for GOP supporters in Iowa, according to a poll by American Research Group. 27 per cent of likely Republican caucus voters in the Hawkeye State would vote for the former New York City mayor.
Arizona senator John McCain is second with 22 per cent, followed by former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with 16 per cent, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 11 per cent. Support is lower for Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, and Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo.
Support for Giuliani dropped by eight points since December, while backing for Romney increased by 14 points.
In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 35 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 18 per cent, Illinois senator Barack Obama with 14 per cent, and former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack with 12 per cent. Support is lower for Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, Delaware senator Joe Biden, retired general Wesley Clark, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.
Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.
The Republican Party will hold an unofficial straw poll of candidates in Iowa in August 2007, before the actual caucus in 2008.
In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.
Polling Data
If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Feb. 2007 | Dec. 2006 | |
Rudy Giuliani | 27% | 28% |
John McCain | 22% | 26% |
Newt Gingrich | 16% | 18% |
Mitt Romney | 11% | 6% |
Chuck Hagel | 5% | 6% |
Mike Huckabee | 2% | 1% |
Sam Brownback | 1% | 1% |
Tom Tancredo | 1% | -- |
Undecided | 15% | 14% |
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Feb. 2007 | Dec. 2006 | |
Hillary Rodham Clinton | 35% | 31% |
John Edwards | 18% | 20% |
Barack Obama | 14% | 10% |
Tom Vilsack | 12% | 17% |
Dennis Kucinich | 2% | 5% |
Joe Biden | 2% | 2% |
Wesley Clark | 2% | 1% |
Bill Richardson | 1% | 1% |
Chris Dodd | 1% | 2% |
Mike Gravel | -- | 1% |
John Kerry | -- | 2% |
Undecided | 13% | 8% |
Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, and 600 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, conducted from Jan. 29 to Feb. 1, 2007. Margin of error is 4 per cent.