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Tory Lead Down to Two Points in Canada
- The governing Conservative party remains ahead in Canada's federal political scene, according to a poll by SES Research. 34 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.
The Liberal party is second with 32 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 16 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 13 per cent, and the Green party with five per cent. Support for the Tories and the NDP fell by two points since mid-October, while backing for both the Grits and the Bloc increased by the same margin.
Canadians renewed the House of Commons in January. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 36.3 per cent of the vote, and secured 124 seats in the 308-member lower house. Since February, Harper leads a minority administration after more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party.
The Liberal party will elect a new leader in December. The list of candidates includes former environment minister Stéphane Dion, academic Michael Ignatieff, former Ontario premier Bob Rae, and former Ontario education minister Gerard Kennedy.
On Nov. 15, Ignatieff questioned whether the Liberals can succeed under Rae, declaring, "Bob remains enduringly weak in Ontario. He doesn't realize that Liberals fight the NDP in election after election. What Liberals need is someone who can run down the middle with a progressive message, and leave the NDP in their own particular ghetto."
Polling Data
If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Nov. 2006 | Aug. 2006 | May 2006 | |
Conservative | 34% | 36% | 38% |
Liberal | 32% | 30% | 28% |
New Democratic Party | 16% | 18% | 19% |
Bloc Québécois | 13% | 11% | 9% |
Green | 5% | 5% | 6% |
Source: SES Research
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 884 Canadian decided voters, conducted from Nov. 5 to Nov. 9, 2006. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.