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U.S. Democrats Hold a 14-Point Edge

October 12, 2006

- The Democratic Party is holding on to first place before next month's congressional election in the United States, according to a poll by the New York Times and CBS News. 49 per cent of respondents would support the Democratic candidate in their district, while 35 per cent would vote for the Republican contender.

Support for the Democrats fell by one point since September, while backing for the Republicans remained stable. American voters will renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 7.

In the November 2004 congressional ballot, the Republican Party elected 232 lawmakers to the United States House of Representatives with 49.2 per cent of the vote, while the Democratic Party secured 202 seats with 46.6 per cent. The Republicans also have a majority in the Senate, with 55 members in the 100-seat upper house.

Yesterday, U.S. president George W. Bush said he expected his party to retain control of both houses, saying, "I still stand by my prediction. We'll have a Republican speaker and Republican leader of the Senate. I believe that we'll maintain control because we're on the right side of the economic issue and the security issue."

Bush said the controversy over Republican Florida congressman Mark Foley—who resigned from the House of Representatives after several suggestive e-mails and text messages he sent to former congressional pages were made public—will not affect his party, adding, "I know this Foley issue bothers a lot of people including me, but I think when (voters) get in that booth they are going to be thinking about how best to secure the country from attack and how best to keep the economy going,"

Polling Data

If the 2006 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?
(Registered Voters)

Oct. 2006

Sept. 2006

Aug. 2006

Democrat

49%

50%

47%

Republican

35%

35%

32%

Other

1%

1%

--

Will not vote

1%

--

--

Depends

6%

7%

12%

Not sure

9%

7%

8%

Source: The New York Times / CBS News
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 983 American adults, conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 8, 2006. Margin of error is 4 per cent.