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Low Support for Russian Presidential Hopefuls

September 20, 2006

- No candidate has emerged as the favourite to supplant Vladimir Putin in Russia, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. Deputy prime minister Dmitry Medvedev and Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Vladimir Zhirinovsky are tied for first place with 10 per cent each.

Defence minister Sergei Ivanov and Communist Party (KPRF) leader Gennady Zyuganov are next on the list with eight per cent, followed by Sergei Glazyev of For a Dignified Life with five per cent. Support is lower for independent State Duma member Vladimir Ryzhkov, Yabloko party leader Grigory Yavlinsky, Motherland - National Patriotic Union (MDRT) leader Dmitri Rogozin, and former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov.

Putin was elected to a second term as president in March 2004 with 71.31 per cent of all cast ballots. In April 2005, Putin ruled out seeking a new mandate, saying, "I will not change the constitution and in line with the constitution, you cannot run for president three times in a row."

Medvedev and Ivanov have been identified as the Kremlin's main contenders in the election. In June, Central Election Commission (CEC) chairman Alexander Veshnyakov confirmed that there are "no legal bans" for a Putin candidacy in 2012.

Earlier this month, Medvedev conceded that Putin's successor would "face economic upheavals" and "probably not be as popular" as the current head of state.

The next presidential election is tentatively scheduled for March 2008.

Polling Data

If the following candidates participated in the 2008 presidential election, who would you vote for?

Aug. 2006

May 2006

Dmitry Medvedev

10%

10.3%

Vladimir Zhirinovsky

10%

7.3%

Sergei Ivanov

8%

7.2%

Gennady Zyuganov

8%

6.8%

Sergei Glazyev

5%

3.2%

Vladimir Ryzhkov

2%

1.9%

Grigory Yavlinsky

2%

1.7%

Dmitri Rogozin

2%

1.8%

Mikhail Kasyanov

1%

1.3%

Would not vote

29%

--

Hard to answer

22%

--

Source: Yury Levada Analytical Center
Methodology: Interviews to 1,600 Russian adults, conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 21, 2006. No margin of error was provided.