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Lula Gains, Reaches 50% in Brazil
- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could win next month's presidential election in Brazil in the first round, according to a poll by Ibope. 50 per cent of respondents would support the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in next month's ballot.
Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 29 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with nine per cent.
Support is lower for former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP), Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers Cause Party (PCO) and Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC).
Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds a 16-point edge.
Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.
Last month, Alckmin referred to the recent inclusion of Venezuela as a full member of the common trade block of southern South American countries known as Mercosur, saying, "No one doubts the importance of Venezuela, but we should verify several things. We defend a market-driven economy and now we have a president (Venezuela's Hugo Chávez) who vows for a different type of economic model."
Alckmin has said he is confident the election will be defined in a run-off. Last month, he declared, "I have no doubt there will be a second round, and then candidate Lula won't have the chance to run away."
The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.
Polling Data
In October 2006, Brazil will have a presidential election. If the ballot took place today with these candidates, which one would you vote for?
Sept. 11 | Sept. 7 | Aug. 31 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 50% | 48% | 48% |
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 29% | 27% | 25% |
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Cristovam Buarque (PDT) | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Ana Maria Rangel (PRP) | 1% | 1% | -- |
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) | 1% | -- | 1% |
Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC) | 1% | -- | -- |
Run-Off Scenario
Sept. 11 | Sept. 7 | Aug. 31 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 53% | 51% | 51% |
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 37% | 37% | 36% |
Source: Ibope
Methodology: Interviews with 2,002 Brazilian adults, conducted from Sept. 9 to Sept. 11, 2006. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.