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Lula Set for First Round Victory in Brazil
- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is the overwhelming favourite in next month's presidential election in Brazil, according to a poll by Datafolha published in Folha de Sao Paulo. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent.
Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 27 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party with 10 per cent, and former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT) with one per cent.
Lula—a three-time presidential candidate—won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds an 18-point edge.
Last year, the Brazilian government was the target of criticism after Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—received payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. Jefferson has so far provided no evidence to back his allegations.
On Aug. 31, Helena presented a television spot, which questions why Lula is leading in the polls. Helena appears on the ad, saying, "I cannot believe that the honest Brazilian people would elect political bandits."
The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 1. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.
Polling Data
If the 2006 presidential election took place today, and the candidates were these, who would you vote for?
Aug. 29 | Aug. 22 | Aug. 8 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 50% | 49% | 47% |
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 27% | 25% | 24% |
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) | 10% | 11% | 12% |
Cristovam Buarque (PDT) | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Run-Off Scenario
Aug. 29 | Aug. 22 | Aug. 8 | |
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) | 55% | 56% | 54% |
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 37% | 35% | 37% |
Source: Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo
Methodology: Interviews with 2,963 Brazilian adults, conducted on Aug. 28 and Aug. 29, 2006. Margin of error is 2 per cent.