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Missouri U.S. Senate: McCaskill 50%, Talent 44%
- Claire McCaskill could win Missouri's election to the United States Senate, according to the latest poll by SurveyUSA. 50 per cent of respondents in the Show Me State would vote for the Democratic challenger, while 44 per cent would support Republican incumbent Jim Talent.
An early November survey by Rasmussen Reports gave Talent a one-point edge over McCaskill. Libertarian Party candidate Frank Gilmour and Lydia Lewis of the Green Party are also contending.
Talent was first elected to the U.S. Senate in a 2002 special election, defeating Democrat Jean Carnahan—the widow of former governor Mel Carnahan—with 52 per cent of all cast ballots. Talent had previously served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993 to 2001.
McCaskill has served as Missouri's state auditor since 1998. She lost the 2004 gubernatorial election to Republican Matt Blunt by 2.9 percentage points.
The election will take place today. Aside from Carnahan, no Democrat has represented Missouri in the U.S. Senate since Thomas F. Eagleton in 1987.
Polling Data
Election 2006 - Missouri U.S. Senate
Incumbent: Jim Talent (R)
Challenger: Claire McCaskill (D), Frank Gilmour (L)
Tal. (R) | McCa. (D) | Gilm. (L) | Date | Methodology | MofE | |
SurveyUSA | 44% | 50% | 3% | Nov. 4-6 | Phone, 793 LV | 3.9 |
Rasmussen Reports | 49% | 48% | -- | Nov. 5 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Gallup | 45% | 49% | -- | Nov. 1-4 | Phone, 917 LV | 4.0 |
Mason-Dixon | 45% | 46% | -- | Nov. 1-3 | Phone, 625 LV | 4.0 |
Rasmussen Reports | 48% | 49% | -- | Nov. 2 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Zogby / Reuters | 43% | 46% | -- | Oct. 24-31 | Phone, 600 LV | 4.0 |
Rasmussen Reports | 47% | 48% | -- | Oct. 30 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
SurveyUSA | 46% | 49% | 2% | Oct. 28-30 | Phone, 525 LV | 4.4 |
Opinion Research Corporation | 49% | 49% | -- | Oct. 26-29 | Phone, 565 LV | 4.0 |
Research 2000 | 47% | 47% | 2% | Oct. 23-26 | Phone, 800 LV | 3.5 |
Rasmussen Reports | 48% | 46% | -- | Oct. 24 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
SurveyUSA | 48% | 45% | 2% | Oct. 21-23 | Phone, 630 LV | 4.0 |
Bloomberg / LA Times | 48% | 45% | -- | Oct. 20-23 | Phone, 593 LV | 4.0 |
Mason-Dixon | 43% | 46% | -- | Oct. 17-19 | Phone, 625 LV | 4.0 |
Zogby Interactive | 50% | 47% | 2% | Oct. 10-16 | Online, 1,005 LV | 3.1 |
Rasmussen Reports | 43% | 42% | -- | Oct. 12 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal | 43% | 48% | -- | Oct. 9-11 | Phone, 800 RV | 3.5 |
SurveyUSA | 42% | 51% | 3% | Oct. 9-11 | Phone, 497 LV | 4.5 |
Zobgy / Reuters | 43% | 39% | -- | Sept. 25-Oct. 2 | Phone, 601 LV | 4.5 |
Gallup | 45% | 48% | -- | Sept. 27-Oct. 1 | Phone, 577 LV | 5.0 |
Mason-Dixon | 43% | 43% | -- | Sept. 24-27 | Phone, 625 RV | 4.0 |
Zogby Interactive | 48% | 47% | -- | Sept. 19-25 | Online, 1,015 LV | 3.1 |
SurveyUSA | 47% | 48% | 1% | Sept. 11-13 | Phone, 468 LV | 4.6 |
Rasmussen | 42% | 45% | -- | Sept. 12 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Research 2000 | 46% | 47% | 2% | Aug. 28-31 | Phone, 800 LV | 3.5 |
| Gallup | 50% | 44% | -- | Aug. 23-27 | Phone, 574 LV | 3.5 |
Zogby | 50% | 45% | -- | Aug. 15-21 | Online, 831 LV | 3.4 |
Rasmussen | 46% | 44% | -- | Aug. 15 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
SurveyUSA | 46% | 47% | 2% | Aug. 12-14 | Phone, 464 LV | 4.6 |
Rasmussen | 42% | 45% | -- | Jul. 20 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Rasmussen | 42% | 42% | -- | Jun. 27 | Phone, 500 LV | 4.5 |
Zogby | 49% | 44% | -- | Jun. 13-19 | Online, 847 LV | 3.6 |
LV: Likely voters
RV: Registered voters
Ad: Adults
MofE: Margin of error
Previous polls from this race